Catalina Foothills, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

983
FXUS65 KTWC 140905
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 AM MST Sun Jun 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Increased moisture will continue to result in
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily from
Tucson south and eastward through Monday, then mostly along the
Int`l border and White Mountains through midweek. Otherwise, breezy
afternoons with temperatures near normal through the forecast
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mainly clear skies this morning across southeast
Arizona with diminishing convective activity to our south across
Sonora. Moisture has continued to deepen across the forecast area
with PWAT values ranging from about 1 to 1.3 inches with the
exception of the White Mountains which is a bit lower. Corresponding
surface dewpoints are now in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most
valley locations. The broad mid/upper level pattern is defined by an
east-west ridge axis extending from Sonora eastward into the Texas
and the Gulf of Mexico with more specifically a weak 700-500mb high
near the AZ/Sonora border with weak flow and more established
southwesterly flow in the 500-300mb layer today.

While the official start of Monsoon 2026 is tomorrow, we`re solidly
in an early preview stage today as the combination of the ample
moisture and strong daytime heating will result in instability
(MLCAPE locally 500-1000 J/KG) to result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. CAMs/HREF/UofA WRF are in
good agreement focusing on Santa Cruz/SW Cochise counties through
the afternoon hours, then with perhaps some renewed development
aided by outflow boundaries into the Tucson Metro in the early
evening. With DCAPE values around 1500 J/KG, any thunderstorms will
have the potential to result in strong gusty outflow winds. The HREF
is showing 40-km neighborhood probabilities of 30 kts above 70
percent this afternoon across Santa Cruz/Cochise Counties and a
small area of 10 percent above 50 kts NW of Tucson early this
evening. Thus, blowing dust will be a concern with stronger
outflows. Otherwise, rainfall amounts will be up to 0.50" to 1.00"
locally under the strongest thunderstorm cores with fairly slow
storm movement dominated by outflows.

A similar setup is expected once again Monday afternoon into evening
with the highest storm chances (20 to 60 percent) from Tucson south
and eastward as additional lower level moisture continues to get
reinforced from Sonora.

As broad troughing develops over the central US, the broader
mid/upper level high will shift to the south and west allowing for
more of a northerly to northwesterly flow regime in the mid levels
on Tuesday. This should result in some slight drying keeping
thunderstorm chances mainly along the Int`l border from Nogales
eastward. Beyond that for Wednesday and Thursday, we`ll still be
teetering on the edge of decent moisture with specifics still to be
determined but once again convective chances will remain primarily
along the Int`l border. Ensembles indicating more distinct drying
by Friday into next weekend as better defined westerly flow results
in drying.

We`ll continue to see afternoon breezes through the forecast period,
most notably in the Upper Gila River Valley including Safford which
will have gusts of 20 to 30 mph through Monday, then a period of
more elevated winds peaking for this same area Wednesday with
locally near critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise,
temperatures near normal through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 10k-13k ft AGL and AOA 20k ft AGL through the
forecast period. Expect isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing
along the Int`l border aft 14/19Z, with storms potentially impacting
KDUG and KOLS initially and then KTUS aft 15/00Z. Will depict storm
chances with VCTS in TAFs at this time. Main threats will be gusty
outflow winds 25-40 kts with these storms. Otherwise, SFC winds 10
kts or less through 14/18Z, then becoming WLY/NWLY 7-12 kts gusting
to 20 kts, with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. SFC winds diminish to 10
kts or less again aft 15/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest through this week
with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 22 mph across much of the area
with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph in lower
elevations of Graham county. Moisture levels will remain elevated
over the next couple of days, with minimum relative humidity 15-30
percent in lower elevations and 30-40 percent in the mountains. This
will bring bring chances (20-60 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into evening mainly from Tucson south
and eastward with brief heavy rain under the storm cores along with
gusty outflow winds and lightning. A similar setup on Monday with
storm chances from Tucson south and eastward, then focused along the
Int`l border from Nogales eastward through the middle of the week.
For Wednesday and Thursday elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions will be possible in the Gila River Valley as winds
increase and RH drops below 15 percent.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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